Their six associates involved in making figures include television commentator Randy Moss and long-time Philadelphia sports columnist Dick Jerardi, who have been with the business since its beginning. The Beyer Speed Figure is calculated by looking at the final time and distance of the race, adjusted by the track variant, which is a measure of the inherent speed of the racetrack in question. } In 1991, The Racing Times, an upstart newspaper founded by Steven Crist, put Beyer Speed Figures into print for the first time. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Several runners had higher TimeformUS figures for Saturday's races, including Cavalry Charge with a 122 in winning the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). A horse doesnt have to have earned a triple-digit BSF before the Derby to win, but its also difficult to make an enormous leap of 10+ from a career-best in a prep race and win the Derby. May 5, 2022 at 5:00 a.m. EDT. When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. He earned a 102 for his Preakness and a 105 for his Belmont Stakes victory. With a horse who did not make his debut until April of his 3-year-old year and , who has raced just three times over the span of eight months, trainer John Sadler has been very deliberate with Flightline. That's not about to change. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) TimeformUS also valued the Wood Memorial, with Early Voting gaining the top mark. With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. It was one point better than the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Life Is Good earned for winning the $3 million Pegasus World Cup in January to rate as the highest figure at more than a mile this year Charge It earned a 111 for winning the Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 2. Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? As he grew up in Erie, Pa., attended Harvard College, and wrote a horse-racing column for the Washington Post, Andrew Beyers great passions were handicapping and betting. In the Demoiselle, she ran a Beyer Speed Figure of 79 and an Equibase Speed Figure of 80, several lengths slower than the figures earned by the country's top 2-year-old filly, Echo Zulu. 92. Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. Bet On Flightline (+375) at BetOnline He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . Preakness 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. 83. Through 02/26/2023. Sell. On 2016's Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Note that Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow do not have relevant Beyer Speed Figures due to running outside the United States. Beyer Speed Figures will sometimes be revised after they are originally published. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Both runners earned their lofty numbers in the Wood Memorial (G2). He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. 2022 Kentucky Derby Field Beyer Speed Figures. One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. Every race since has been shorter. We knew Olympiad was fast he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a mile in :12.53, according to Equibase, was especially impressive. "Five Takeaways" From the Week Concluding March 13, 2022 By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Analyst and Handicapper. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Olympiad is a fast, consistent 4-year-old with a high-cruising speed that allows him to gain tactical position in his races, plus hes in the hands of one of the best trainers in the history of the sport. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. For example, horse "A" has gotten Beyer Speed Figures of 90, 82, and 89 in his last three races. A system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method", "Flightline stunning as he runs away with Pacific Classic", "Overacheiver [sic] Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders' Cup: Talking Speed Figures with Beyer", "Best Bets: A handicapping history of the Breeders' Cup, Part 5 [Breeders' Cup]", "Commentator stands alone in Beyer history", "With a Combination of Speed and Class, War Pass Is Reminiscent of Seattle Slew", "Jerardi: Top Beyer Figures a thing of the past", "Frosted ran off the screen and to the top of the Beyer scale", "Overacheiver Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "American Pharoah's 120 erases any doubts", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyer_Speed_Figure&oldid=1115194621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from March 2015, Articles needing additional references from March 2015, All articles needing additional references, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24. The top Beyer Speed Figure earned by a Kentucky Derby Sportsbook since 1987 is 118, shared by Summer Squall (1990), Silver Charm (1997) and Smarty Jones (2004). We the People (2-1) Skippylongstocking (20-1) . Play today with NYRA Bets! Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. color: #FFF; table.tableizer-table { Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . margin: 3px; She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. In last year's Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when crossing the wire first. He was nearly in a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. Is Epicenter as much of a standout as he seems? [23], As Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse's final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface. Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. He may just be the type of horse who is so fast than he needs ample time between races. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. For example, a horse who earns three consecutive figures of 102, and defeats a horse with three consecutive figures of 92, would indicate a projected figure of 102 for that race is accurate. Some horseplayers that read Picking Sportsbooks began making their own numbers and then in 1992 The Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers in the past performances, giving access to everyone. Olympiad, with Junior Alvarado in the irons, rolled to a 2 -length victory in the July 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, his fifth win in a row to start off 2022. He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. However, that came after the disqualification of Maximum Security. Brisnet does not mark Epicenter as a standout. Call 7032375030 for more information. He's a special horse. Finley said that all decisions regarding a racing schedule will be made by Sadler. Sonora, CA (95370) Today. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in the right direction. font-weight: bold; By his theory, a horse earning an 85 Beyer at Golden Gate Fields going seven furlongs and a horse earning an 85 Beyer at nine furlongs at Santa Anita basically have the same ability. From this work, using the same principle, Kovitz derived the beaten-lengths chart which Beyer published in Picking Winners. Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. A colt being trounced in Belmont MSW company may find a soft spot upstate at Finger Lakes, where the par for the class is 59.In most cases, pars are not listed for races restricted to 2- or 3-year-olds. Grandam (maternal grandmother) Flying Passage, by A.P. Speightstown took some time as a racehorse to come around, winning champion sprinter honors as a 6-year-old, and many of his best runners have improved significantly with age: Tamarkuz won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at 6; Haynesfield won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 4; and Flagstaff became a Grade 1 winner at age 7. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail: By the Numbers. Used 2014 Audi A6 from Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046. Comparatively, Rock Your World ran a 100-BSF, which paced the 2021 group. After reaching the WIAA Division 1 girls basketball state . Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race . The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Not a subscriber? On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. If you are a casual sports fan getting ready to check out the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, you are going to hear plenty of talk about Beyer Speed Figures. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . . 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. Indy are both major stamina influences as broodmare sires and Olympiads family also produced 1987 Ashland Stakes winner Chic Shirine and 2015 Travers Stakes winner Keen Ice. 111. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Odds are estimates, as the opening morning line odds will not be released by Churchill Downs until the post position draw a few days before the first Saturday in May. Messier (7-1), Zandon (8-1), and Mo Donegal (8-1) are other top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders according to oddsmakers. Ran third in the Preakness, beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Early Voting, tabbed with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure at 10-1 . Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. Commentator, who once ran a 123 in his career, scored a 120 as a 7-year-old, possibly a record for a horse that old. Owned by WinStar . Chance of rain 100%. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. }. Medaglia dOro and A.P. Its true that Speightsown has sired plenty of quality 2-year-olds and talented sprinters, but hes actually far more versatile than that. For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. Make sure you keep an eye out in the coming weeks for any changes to the Kentucky Derby field. [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. If the top contenders in a Belmont MSW field regularly run in the 70s, the race may be a good spot for first-time starters or other entrants with no recent form. Holy Bull earned a 121 in his career. Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Speed Figures: Un Ojo improved his best Equibase Speed Figure 14 points to a 91 for the Rebel Stakes, and he boosted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to an 84. They are meant to represent the racing merit of an Australian horse. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Beyer Speed Figures had him with a top of 79 as a 2-year-old, but he earned a 94 for the San Vicente and a 98 for the San Felipe, so he's . Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best San Felipe Stakes Winners, Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners, Triple Crown Turning Point: The Right Rider for Gallant Fox, SLIDESHOW: U.S. He was assigned a 103 Beyer Speed figure for that effort which is the highest in the field. Here are the 19 highest Beyer figures for Saturday's races, with figures from Brisnet and TimeformUS where available. The Beyer Speed Figure specifically does not consider other variables such as the early pace or traffic problems a horse may have faced during a given race. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. Each day's races are compared to their pars, with the variant representing the average deviation, and then added to the raw speed rating to yield the par-time based figure. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. Play today with NYRA Bets! Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. That's the case for this year's Wood Memorial, where pacesetter Early Voting got a slightly higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than Mo Donegal. While Flightline is expected to have a more complete campaign next year than he did this year, don't expect him to run seven or eight times. Belmont Stakes 2022 field and odds. Avg. The popular rule of thumb for a rough equivalent of the Timeform score is to deduct 12-14 points to achieve the Beyer figure. Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . There were three Kentucky Derby horses that posted 100+ BSFs. Flightline was given a 118 Beyer figure for his sensational performance in Sunday's GI Runhappy Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which is the top figure assigned to any horse this year. [1], The record for the highest Beyer Speed figure is held by Groovy, the 1987 American Champion Sprint Horse who earned 133 and 132 in back-to-back races,[2] in the Roseben and True North Handicaps at six furlongs in 1987. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Epicenter's effort in the Risen Star earned him a 98 Beyer and Brisnet. View information about the top race horses and their winnings at DRF.com today. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? 97. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. Previewing the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. The Beyer numbers trace their roots back to the work of Ray Taulbot's parallel-time chart (1959), with Beyer pointing out the flaw of adding a fixed amount of time to slow or fast times at other distances, driving the numbers out of proportion. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. The figure may however be adjusted if the raw numbers are unusual based on the field's previous performances. padding: 4px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. The lone outright winner to run under a 100 came in 2014 (California Chrome, 97). 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline ( Tapit) is really, really, fast . 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