Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. . (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. WEco is funded by multiple donors. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. 175 0 obj
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Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. We are 37% through the Water Year. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9
The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. But it is concerning. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. What's the weather forecast for 2050? The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. CNN's Bill Weir has more. With low-runoff conditions and . It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. Climate change also plays a part. Flight Center. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Credit: Alex Hager. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. SW Satellite Weather Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. google_ad_type = "text_image"; google_ad_height = 600; 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . google_ad_width = 160; Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. hb```)," A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. levels. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). This level is actually .02 feet . Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5
LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. hbbd``b`$WX)! Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. SW Satellite Weather Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. google_color_url = "426C95"; endstream
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For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. google_color_link = "0000FF"; The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. n$L{Z. //-->, Printable Version Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. endstream
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Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. 15 Day Weather Forecast The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The lake is set to reach. Detailed Map of Powell In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb
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The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | %PDF-1.7
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U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. 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